AI adoption could unlock £105bn in additional revenue for UK mid-sized firms by 2030

• Mid-sized companies 23% more productive than UK average and AI is accelerating that lead
• AI adoption among mid-sized firms jumps from 35% to 55% in two years
• ‘Productive adopters’, firms embedding AI into core operations, are projected to gain £4.5m in additional revenue within four years

UK mid-sized companies could generate an additional £105 billion in revenue by 2030 if current artificial intelligence (AI) adoption trends continue, according to new research carried out by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) on behalf of HSBC UK.

The study used forecasting and economic modelling to establish that AI is fast becoming a dividing line in the UK economy, separating firms that are accelerating ahead of those at risk of standing still.

There are around 35,000 mid-sized businesses in the UK, companies with annual turnover between £15 million and £300 million. Often described as the ‘engine room’ of the economy, they combine the investment strength of large firms with the agility of smaller ones, giving them a productive edge. In 2025, mid-sized firms generated 23 per cent more value per employee than the wider economy.

Two years ago, just over a third (35 per cent) of mid-sized firms were using AI in some form. By the end of 2025, that figure had climbed to 55 per cent, reflecting the mainstreaming of large language models, advanced analytics and workflow automation.

To support long-term business growth, HSBC UK has launched the £5 billion AI & Productivity Financing Initiative, to help UK businesses invest in essential, future-ready capabilities.

James Cundy, Managing Director and Head of Corporate and Leveraged Finance at HSBC UK, said: “Mid-sized businesses play a central role in UK growth. Our findings suggest AI adoption could strengthen one of the economy’s most important growth engines.

“The opportunity is significant, but it requires confidence to invest. Our focus is on supporting businesses as they invest in the technology, skills and innovation that will shape the UK’s next phase of growth.”

“Through HSBC UK’s new initiative, businesses can access funding on commercial terms to build the skills, systems and technology they need to enhance productivity.”

The research identifies a clear divide between firms experimenting with AI to draft emails or summarise documents and those embedding it into core operations.

Around a quarter (24 per cent) of mid-sized firms are described as ‘productive adopters’ – businesses integrating AI into forecasting, reporting, supply chain management and customer engagement, in a way that materially transforms performance.

James Cundy adds: “The distinction between experimentation and integration is critical.

“Businesses that move beyond pilots and apply AI to decision-making, operations and workforce processes are seeing measurable gains in both productivity and revenue.”

Mind the productivity gap

HSBC UK’s research indicates that firms adopting AI in a sustained and integrated way increase revenue per employee by around 4 per cent on average.

For a mid-sized company of average size, ‘productive adoption’ can expect to generate £4.5 million in revenue, alongside £1.3 million in additional economic value compared with a similar firm that does not adopt the technology within four years.

Continued uptake of AI – combined with the estimated productivity effect - could add £105 billion in revenue and £31 billion in additional economic output by 2030. After that, gains continue, but at a steadier pace as adoption becomes widespread across the mid-market. Looking further ahead, AI-driven productivity improvements among mid-sized firms could generate more than half a trillion pounds in additional turnover by 2050.

Nina Skero, Chief Executive at Cebr, said: “Our findings show AI is beginning to influence productivity outcomes in the UK mid-market in a meaningful way.

“However, productive adopters remain a minority within the mid-market. That suggests there is still significant headroom for gains across the sector. If more firms move from initial adoption to deeper integration, the aggregate impact on UK productivity and national output could be substantial by the end of the decade.”